On Monday (March 2nd) during the Asian session, amidst a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East, US crude oil opened more than 5% higher, breaking through the key resistance level of $72, before subsequently retreating. With the Strait of Hormuz facing the risk of disruption to shipping, threatening more than 20% of the global crude oil supply route, the market quickly priced in the geopolitical risk premium.

US President Trump stated that he would continue military action until the established objectives were achieved. This statement was interpreted by the market as indicating that the conflict was unlikely to ease in the short term, thus increasing the upside risk for oil prices. Meanwhile, another supply-side development also attracted attention. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, higher than previously expected by the market. Theoretically, this production increase should help alleviate some supply concerns, but its impact is relatively limited given the current geopolitical tensions.

From a daily chart perspective, oil prices have risen above $70. The moving average system is in a bullish alignment, and the medium-term objective trend is upward. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator is widening upwards above the zero line, indicating that bullish momentum is dominant. The medium-term trend is expected to maintain an upward trend.

Crude oil's short-term (1-hour) price action saw a rise followed by a pullback, but the overall trend remains upward. The morning candlestick closed with a long upper shadow, suggesting that the sustainability of bullish momentum remains to be seen. The moving average system is in a bullish alignment, indicating a short-term objective upward trend. It is expected that crude oil will likely maintain its upward momentum throughout the day. Today's strategy: Buy at 69.50, stop loss at 67.30, target 73.50.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.