The market is currently in an awkward position. While a recovery is certainly possible, the lack of volatility and liquidity has raised concerns about the future direction of the crypto market. As the U.S. market returns from the holiday period, we may see renewed selling pressure across the cryptocurrency sector.

Bitcoin’s Recovery Attempt

Following a sharp decline in mid-November, Bitcoin has staged a rebound—and this move off the lows no longer appears to be a short-lived bounce, but a genuine recovery attempt. The price quickly returned to the mid-$80,000 range and continues to push toward the $90,000 level, which serves as both a structurally significant zone and a psychological barrier.

From a technical perspective, the current rebound is valid. The previous sell-off created extremely oversold conditions, and the recent increase in trading volume indicates that buyers are not merely passive dip-buyers but are actively driving the market upward. Strengthening volume over the past several sessions suggests panic selling is no longer in control, and the RSI has lifted from oversold levels, showing improving momentum. However, this does not make the current level a firm support.

Bitcoin remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs — three key moving averages that are still trending sharply downward. Bitcoin’s recovery will occur in stages, and the recent breakdown caused the price to fall below this cluster of moving averages. Although short-term momentum is bullish, structural inertia remains bearish. The first major challenge lies at $90,000.

Sellers are expected to re-enter at this level, as it previously acted as support during the early stages of the decline. However, the strength of the current rebound has been exceptional, and if buyers maintain pressure, a breakout above $90,000 becomes highly probable. If Bitcoin closes above this level on the daily chart, the declining 50-day EMA will come into play around $94,000–$96,000. Reclaiming this zone would shift the market narrative from a “relief bounce” to a potential “trend reversal.”

SHIB’s Turning Point

SHIB is at a potential turning point where a new uptrend could begin—the key word being “potential,” as the setup looks encouraging but is not yet decisive. After weeks of downward pressure and a clear structural decline, SHIB has finally developed a series of higher lows along with a modest but noticeable increase in buying volume. This marks the first sign of seller fatigue.

The price has returned to the $0.0000085–$0.0000090 range, which has historically acted as a short-term pivot zone. The market typically attempts at least a medium-sized rebound from here, and SHIB often finds support in this region. Additionally, the RSI has bounced from extremely oversold levels and now sits in the mid-40 range—a neutral zone that often precedes upside acceleration when buyers step in more aggressively.

The real opportunity lies slightly above the current price. The declining 20-day EMA is approaching SHIB, while the 50- and 100-day EMAs are stacked above, forming a dense resistance cluster. If SHIB manages to break through this multi-layered resistance, upside momentum could accelerate rapidly. A grinding consolidation period followed by a sudden spike when liquidity shifts is a pattern frequently observed in SHIB’s previous cycles—and new inflows are entirely possible here.

As the market stabilizes after recent volatility, meme assets often act as high-beta leaders once broader crypto confidence returns. If trading volume increases significantly, the next liquidity targets lie at $0.0000095 and $0.0000105.

Even so, nothing is guaranteed. The broader trend remains downward. The 200-day EMA continues to slope lower and sits far above the current price, suggesting that long-term sentiment has not yet shifted. If SHIB fails to reclaim the short-term EMAs, it could quickly fall back into the mid-$0.0000070 range.

XRP’s Underlying Effort

Although XRP is attempting to build bullish momentum, the technical structure shows the market remains caught between early signs of recovery and a broader bearish trend. The bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel was technically sound and stable. Buyers strongly defended the $2.00–$2.10 area, which has historically been a reactive demand zone for XRP. This rebound has brought the price back to the mid-channel region.

Short-term momentum is improving. The RSI has moved out of oversold territory and is heading toward the mid-40 range, typically signaling increasing buyer activity if the price continues rising. Trading volume during the bounce was above average—not a full reversal spike, but enough to show sidelined participants returning to the market.

However, overhead resistance remains substantial. XRP is facing a cluster of downward-sloping moving averages, including the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs—a classic indication of a medium-term downtrend. Until the price breaks through this compression zone, roughly $2.30–$2.50, any bullish momentum remains speculative. As long as XRP continues forming lower highs and respecting the descending channel, a confirmed trend reversal cannot be declared.

Investors can anticipate two realistic scenarios:

Momentum Continues

If XRP breaks above $2.36 (the 20-day EMA) and holds, the next key zone is $2.50–$2.55, where the 50-day EMA converges with horizontal resistance. A clean breakout above this region would weaken the channel and shift control toward buyers, opening the door for a larger trend reversal.

Rejection and Pullback

If XRP faces rejection at current levels, the price may drop back toward the channel midpoint or retest the $2.05–$2.10 range. In this case, any recovery narrative will be delayed, and the broader downtrend will remain intact.

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.